Enough Already — Move on to The End Game

I am tired of hearing talking heads tell us how terrible Trump is.

The discussion has to move on to legal removal processes strategies, and how to hold accountable those Republicans who continue to enable by silence, acquiesce, or worse.  Clock on the categories for discussions by type.

 

Did Trump Spontaneously Add the Problem Words to His Charlottesville Statement?

Most of the problems in Trump Charlottesville statement come from the phrase “amny sides.”  In fact, if you watch it, here, you see you will see that the phrase, actually repeated, at the 16 second mark, is delivered very differently from the rest of the statement.

The phrase is emphasized, by tone and repetition and it is underlined by an arm wave (an old rhetorical trick).

manysides

To me, the whole thing only makes verbal and non-verbal sense as a spontaneous addition by Trump.  In other words he wanted and needed to weaken and qualify an originally more powerful statement.

Note that at the beginning, he is clearly reading something, but at this critical point he looks up, not needing to be guided by the previously drafted statement and his body argue changes.

Moreover he similarly does not look at the written statement when referencing his name and that of Obama, and when he talks of how long the hated has been going on.  It might well be that this additional dilution by time is also added personally by him.

I would urge news organizations to do all they can to get the original draft, although when you look at this in this light, it all makes sense, even without knowing the written text.

If I am right, this is an additional insight into his soul, if any were needed.

Update, August 15.  Now confirmed.

 

 

Speculation and Manafort’s Change of Lawyers

I want to draw your attention to the some specific language in the Politico story on Paul Manafort’s change of lawyers, quoting a Manafort spokesman (see especially my bold language):

A spokesman confirmed the change. “Mr. Manafort is in the process of retaining his former counsel, Miller & Chevalier, to represent him in the office of special counsel investigation. As of today, WilmerHale no longer represents Mr. Manafort,” Jason Maloni said in a statement.

Now I have absolutely no factual knowledge of the situation.

However, I can not help but notice this.  Apparently, the process of moving back representation to prior counsel was not, at least at the time of the statement, complete.  But, “as of today,” WilmerHale is out of the picture, and apparently it has become important that this is made clear immediately.

Now all the media coverage has focused on the possibility that this change reflects realization of the newly serious situation Manafort faces.  But what strikes me is the apparent speed and finality of the change — so fast that the statement is issued before the retaining of new counsel is complete.  This is in direct contrast to changes made in representation of others caught up in this scandal.  Of course, in a fast moving case, in which the prosecutor has already  shown a willinness to push hard, going even an hour without a lawyer can be very risky.

As a totally general matter, it is an open secret among lawyers that “getting off a case,” is often triggered by disagreement about testimony, or representations made by counsel to legal bodies. Sometimes this can be related to prior testimony or such representations.  More specifically often the problem is the reluctance of counsel to become embroiled in knowing (emphasis added) that testimony is false.  (One might speculate that in such situations, timing can be of the essence.)

Regardless of whether any of my speculation is accurate, you can be sure that Mueller’s staff are already going through everything they have to try to figure out where any problem might be, and to then adjust their strategy.

Not good news for any of those potentially implicated.

Note:  This post appeared initially in my access to justice blog.

 

I have the Perfect Title For the Best Book on the Trump Presidency: One Million Minutes

While the exact number is subject to change when the nightmare ends, the concept is clear.  The book would begin something like this:

The now concluded Trump Presidency consumed one million minutes, five thousand presidential tweets, 100 million dollars in investigations, and ten cabinet firings or resignations.

Those minutes were perhaps the most fragmented, fast moving, chaotic, destructive, shocking, confusing and testing minutes in our nation’s history.

The damage done to nation, planet, international system and human beings will take decades to assess fully. 

Above all, the story of those endless minutes is the story of the ultimate resilience of our institutions, notwithstanding the weaknesses and failures of so many who were to play roles in those institutions as they faced the test.

I am less confident of exactly how the book will end, but I am confident that the ultimate resolution will put us on the road to recovery.

 

Lets Face It — a Constitutional Crisis Is Certain

Calm, measured, careful David Brooks, on the News Hour Friday night, said something like this (reconstructed, not quoted):

Look Trump is transparent.  He has said — if you want to find my corruption go to the tex returns.  And he has said to Mueller, if you got the tax returns, I will fire you. So, we know exactly what will happen.  Mueller will go to the tax returns, Trmp will fire him, and we will have a constitutional crisis of some king.

I conclude that at this point we all actually know that a constitutional crisis is coming.  All that remains to find out is exactly what will trigger it, how the parties align at that point and perhaps how it will end.  Although I am pretty confident of the ultimate outcome.

This reminds me of my mother, who as 15 at the time of the events, saying that after Munich in 1938, everyone knew that war was coming, and that it was almost a relief when it finally did so.  Then people knew what they had to do.  I think it is the same now.

Now, the crisis could come from an attempted firing, it could be triggered by a refusal to comply with court or congressional orders, or less likely, it could be set off by extra-judicial illegal executive actions.  Nor do we know what the triggering event will be about.  It could be the now essentially admitted as to intent, Russia Collusion, the obstruction of justice claim, financial irregularities, or even the emoluments clause, to name just a few of the options.

But the outcome will depend on the willingness of the Courts and Republican politicians to enforce our constitutional norms. While it is clear that almost none of our Republican leaders have read or internalized Profiles in Courage, at some point the pain barrier will be reached.

Finally, I sometimes wonder what the definition of a constitutional crisis is?  Is it when one when of the corrective measures in the constittuion cuts in and works, as it did in 1974, or is it when that mechanisms are not triggered, or fail, causing a braoder legitimacy problem.  I hope we do not find out.

What’s the “Humanity First” Response to a Likely Paris Agreement Withdrawal

The maybe unreliable chatter today is that Trump will, one way or another, pull the US out of the plant-saving Paris agreement.  This will surely be a tipping point in the world order, if not the future of the planet and humanity.  Certainly the most important decision the US has made in my adult lfetime.  It is as if the US had withdrawn from the League of Nations, rather than just failed to join it.

But the question then becomes what should everyone, and I mean everyone, do to put “humanity first.”  Some suggestions:

If you can, buy goods made in states that are making every effort to comply with Paris goals.  The less industrial activity in non-compliant states, the lower the emissions.

If you can not make a US “Humanity First” purchase, consider buying goods made in countries that are still committed to meeting the Paris goals.  (Yes, its hard to boycott your own country, and there will be political blow-back, but surely it is the logical thing to do.  After all, lessened industrial activity in the US will reduce emissions.

Make investment decisions based on companies, states’ and countries’ efforts to support the Paris goals.

Encourage organizations to make their decisions on the same criteria. 

Obviously, give to advocacy organizations, particularly international ones.

Accelerate your planting and environmental plans, personally and organizationally.

Remember this could be a tipping point for the planet.  Think of it as a slow moving Cuban Missile Crisis in which we can all influence the outcome.  (For those who remember, think Yenching Palace for all of us — talking of genuine back channels.)

 

 

The US Has Three Paties, Not Two, and Coalition Government, Not Single Party Government

Brilliant and transformative reporting by Politico on the collapse of  the Trumpcare/Ryancare agenda shows that we have passed a critical step in moving from having two parties to three.  A consequence is that we no longer have single party government, but coalition government — and a dysfunctional coalition at that.

The key paragraph describes the crucial March 6 meeting of the Freedom Caucus, just after the release of the plan.  The members of the Caucus were deeply aware of the intense pressure about to be put on them, and fearful of one on one appeals:

In a conference room in the Rayburn House Office Building, the group met that evening and made a secret pact. No member would commit his vote before consulting with the entire group — not even if Trump himself called to ask for an on-the-spot commitment. The idea, hatched by Freedom Caucus vice chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), was to bind them together in negotiations and ensure the White House or House leaders could not peel them off one by one.

With about 36 members, and although only about two thirds formally took the pledge, given the numbers, that was really the end of the game.  The Caucus were so protective of each other that at one meeting, when Ryan tried to get each of them to state where they stood, the gorp in effect refused.

So, going forward, once the Caucus takes this position, nothing can get passed without Democratic help, and that’s even before counting the most moderate members of the House.  Perhaps even more importantly, the group has demonstrated that they are willing to take and hold by such a position, regardless of cost to President, Speaker, and their nominal party and its agenda.  Add the requirement of a coherent intellectual structure (which they have, using a technical definition of coherent) and you pretty much have at least a congressional party in the Freedom Caucus.

There are many problems with having coalition government, but right now perhaps the worst is that there is no institutional experience in managing such a situation.  Indeed, the only ones who seem to have thought it through are the Democrats, including particularly Nancy Pelosi, who had in the last Congress brilliantly kept her caucus in line and used that unity, with the very skilled help of the President, to extract maximum advantage.

Going forward, this means huge leverage for the Democrats, provided they maintain the message discipline of keeping sufficiently quiet that they do not force the two Republic sub-parties back together.

It also means that there has to be a serious question as to whether through public splits and primaries the sub-become really separate parties, and perceived as such by the public.  It helps that there are already strong links to at least two Senators.

Trump is already attacking Ryan, even if only indirectly so far.  Given the Caucus veto on any successor, and given the total lack of appeal of the job of speaker, its hard to imagine any path forward that way.   It is all a recipe for disaster for the group formerly known as the Republican Party.